欧盟是什麽?分散投资是避險最好方法!

作者: 冼國林 2022年5月16日

政治




因為俄烏戰爭,我想很多人都聽說過歐盟這個名字。儘管如此,我認為他們並不清楚歐盟的性質和運作細節。

 

歐盟是一個由 27 個成員國組成的政治和經濟聯盟,估計總人口約為 4.47 億。如果把歐盟看成一個國家,它是第二大經濟體,排名高於中國。歐盟起源於1951年《巴黎條約》和1957年《羅馬條約》分別建立的歐洲煤鋼共同體和歐洲經濟共同體,根據1985年的申根協定,歐盟公民可以在歐盟境內自由旅行和工作。會員國的公民,並可以享受所有會員國的使館保護。 1993年,這兩個組織合二為一,即是今天的歐盟。自 1999 年 1 月 1 日起,除英國堅持使用英鎊作為本國法定貨幣外,19 個成員國在歐盟地區使用歐元作為共同貨幣。

 

對歐盟憲法基礎的重大修正《里斯本條約》於2009年生效。在修正之前,幾乎所有決議都必須得到所有成員國的一致同意,這是一個相當嚴格的要求。但是根據《里斯本條約》,除稅收、社會保障、外交和國防等必須得到所有成員國同意的決定外,許多決定可以由有效大多數通過。

 

在我之前的文章中,我曾多次表示,歐盟要通過制裁令全面禁止俄羅斯向歐洲進口天然氣並不容易。歐洲議會議長羅伯塔·梅佐拉提出制裁俄羅斯的動議,無非是為了取悅美國的一種姿態。因為她應該知道,想要得到所有會員國一致同意幾乎是不可能的。奧地利已經宣布他們不會同意制裁提議,所以議案肯定不可能通過。

 

至於核戰爭,我們可以參考德國聯邦總理奧拉夫·舒爾茨的說法,他已經表示他們不希望與俄羅斯發生核戰爭。根據美國科學家聯合會提供的數據,俄羅斯應該有大約 5977 枚,其中 1500 枚可能已經被解除武裝。如果核戰發生,就不是核戰而是世界末日,我認為歐洲國家不會盲目支持和追隨美國而完全不考慮潛在後果。再者,制裁俄羅斯並不是一個全新的舉動,這些動作只會對世界經濟引起短期的震盪。制裁是一把雙刃劍,對雙方都有傷害,從長遠來看,我認為歐盟國家比俄羅斯遭受的損失更大。就像美國對從中國進口的商品加徵關稅一樣。我兩年之前曾經說過,這樣加關稅一定會在美國引起嚴重的通貨膨脹,因為這是一種輸入型通貨膨脹,因為中國商品在美國的需求量很大,進口商沒有太多的議價能力將增加的關稅全部轉移給中國的出口商。

 

總結來說,我認為大家不需要太擔心第三次世界大戰或核戰爭的發生。儘管如此,我仍然建議大家和政府應該將投資分散在不同的貨幣、不同的資產和不同地區去分散風險。

 

Because of the Russian-Ukrainian war, I think a lot of people have heard the name EU. Still, I don't think they are clear about the nature and operational details of the EU.

 

 The European Union is a political and economic union of 27 member states with an estimated total population of about 447 million. If you consider the EU as a country, it is the second largest economy, ranking higher than China. The EU originated from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community established by the Treaty of Paris in 1951 and the Treaty of Rome in 1957. According to the 1985 Schengen Agreement, EU citizens can travel and work freely within the EU. Citizens of Member States and can enjoy the protection of embassies of all Member States. In 1993, the two organizations merged into one, which is today the European Union. Since January 1, 1999, 19 member states have used the euro as their common currency in the European Union, except for the United Kingdom, which insists on using the British pound as its legal currency.

 

A major amendment to the EU's constitutional basis, the Treaty of Lisbon, entered into force in 2009. Before amendments, almost all resolutions must be unanimously agreed by all member states, which is a fairly strict requirement. But under the Lisbon Treaty, many decisions can be passed by an effective majority, with the exception of decisions on taxation, social security, foreign affairs and defense, which must be agreed by all member states.

 

In my previous articles, I have said many times that it will not be easy for the EU to completely ban Russian gas imports from Europe through sanctions. European Parliament President Roberta Mezzola's proposal to sanction Russia was nothing more than a gesture to please the United States. Because she should have known that it was almost impossible to get the unanimous consent of all Member States. Austria has already announced that they will not agree to the sanction proposal, it means that the sanction proposal will surely not passed.

 

 As for nuclear war, we can refer to the statement of German Federal Chancellor Olaf Schulz, who has already stated that they do not want a nuclear war with Russia. According to data provided by the Federation of American Scientists, Russia should have about 5,977 nuclear bombs, of which 1,500 may have been disarmed. If a nuclear war occurs, it will not be a nuclear war but the end of the world, and I don't think European countries will blindly support and follow the United States without considering the potential consequences. Furthermore, sanctions against Russia are not entirely new, and these actions will only cause short-term shocks to the world economy. Sanctions are a double-edged sword that hurts both sides, and in the long run I think EU countries will suffer more than Russia. Just like the U.S. imposed tariffs on goods imported from China. As I said two years ago, such an increase in tariffs will definitely cause serious inflation in the United States, because this is an imported inflation, because Chinese goods are in great demand in the United States, and importers do not have much bargaining power to pass all the increased tariffs on to Chinese exporters.

 

 In conclusion, I don't think we need to worry too much about the occurrence of a third world war or a nuclear war. Nevertheless, I still recommend that people and governments should spread their investments in different currencies, different assets and different regions in order to spread risk.

 

16/5/2022

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