In my previous article I have said that it is least possible that the Russia- Ukraine war will induce the USA and EU to join the Russia-Ukraine war directly, or even worse, the 3rd world war. My supporting point is that all western countries are interest oriented, they will not do anything that may get them hurt. I also said that the European countries, although they boast that they will lessen the reliance on the natural gas supplied by Russia or even refuse to use the natural gas of Russia, I believe that they will finally knee down to agree to pay RUB for the natural gas as they have no other substitution at the moment. I have further said that once the European countries agree to use RUB as the settlement currency for the natural gas supplied by Russia, it inspires us that RMB’s status for the settlement of international trade will be stronger in the future days.
Someone has challenged my article saying that the European countries will not agree Russia’s request to use RUB and also criticized my idea that HK should grasp this opportunity to enlarge and strengthen its offshore RMB center as it is a golden chance for HK to further strengthen it international financial center status. I don’t mind any criticism; it is because everyone should have freedom of speech. All my comments are based of actual market experience but not merely a theory form the test book. It is hardly for a scholar without actual market experience to understand that the real-world situation is quite different from the result of merely a study in a university. In fact, I welcome to exchange ideas with different professionals as it may help to find out my inadequacy.
Recently, it comes to my knowledge that the UK has already agreed to use RUB as settlement currency and the EU also said that using RUB as settlement currency is not of any issue. It did prove that my previous analysis is correct. Thence, I strongly suggest that the senior officers in charge of financial matters of the HK government should seriously consider how to grasp this opportunity to strengthen our status of being an offshore RMB settlement center. By doing so, it will help to increase the income of the government, derive more employment and business opportunities, that may release the burden of huge social welfare expenditure.
Again, I would like to remind the HK government to bear in mind the risk of our stock market being attacked, and also the potential risk, not matter how low, for holding almost 100% USD assets as our reserve. I have written an article last month to remind the HK government that there was symptom that the foreign financial sharks might be taking action attacking our stock market. Few days later, the central government has issued an announcement emphasizing the importance of keeping the financial market stable. Thence, because of huge fund inflow from China, the Hang Seng Index climbed back to 22000 from 17800. However, I remind here again, we should always be cautious to the abnormal movement of stock market and take immediate action in due course, it is an indispensable practice for an international financial center.
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