危機衍生機會,不應輕易錯失

作者: 冼國林 2022年4月28日

經濟




在之前的文章中,我說過俄烏戰爭是不大可能促使美國和歐盟直接參戰,更遑論引起第三次世界大戰。我的觀點是,所有西方國家都是以利益為導向的,他們不會做任何可能傷害他們本身的事情。我還說過,儘管歐洲國家雖然不斷吹噓要減少對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴,甚至會拒絕使用羅斯天然氣,但我卻認為他們最終還是會下跪,同意支付盧布去購買俄羅斯天然氣,因為他們目前根本沒有其他替代品。我更進一步說過一旦歐洲國家同意使用盧布作為俄羅斯供應的天然氣的結算貨幣,這對我們的啟示是:人民幣在國際貿易結算中的地位未來將更加強大。

 

曾經有人質疑我的文章,說歐洲國家不會同意俄羅斯的要求使用盧布結算,也批評我認為香港應該抓住這個機會做大做強離岸人民幣中心,因為這是進一步鞏固香港作為國際金融中心地位的大好時機。我不介意任何批評,因為每個人都有言論自由。我所有的評論都是基於實際的市場經驗,而不僅僅是從課本中的理論推算出來。一般較少市埸實戰經驗的學者,很難理解現實世界與在大學裡研究出來的結果往往有很大的出入。事實上,我歡迎與不同的專業人士交流想法,因為這可能有助於找出我的不足之處。

據我了解,最近英國已經正式同意使用盧布作為結算貨幣,歐盟也表示使用盧布作為結算貨幣沒有任何問題。這結果便已經證明了我之前的分析是正確的。因此,我強烈建議香港政府負責財經事務的高級官員應該認真考慮如何把握這個機會加大發展人民幣離岸結算中心,因為這將有助於增加政府的收入,創造很多就業機會及帶動其他商機,從而可以減輕巨額社會福利的支出。

再次提醒香港政府,要牢記金融市場可能會受到攻擊的危機,以及持有差不多100%美元資產作為儲備的潛在風險,就算無論風險有多低,都要小心。我數星期前亦曾經寫了一篇文章提醒香港政府,有跡象顯示外國金融大鱷可能在我們的股票市場上採取行動。幾天後,中央政府發出公告,強調保持金融市場穩定的重要性, 馬上有北水入市,令到恆生指數在數天內由17800左右重回22000點。不過,我在這裡再次提醒特區政府,我們要時刻留意股市的不尋常走勢,適時地採取果斷行動,因為這是作為國際金融中心不可缺少的做法。

In my previous article I have said that it is least possible that the Russia- Ukraine war will induce the USA and EU to join the Russia-Ukraine war directly, or even worse, the 3rd world war. My supporting point is that all western countries are interest oriented, they will not do anything that may get them hurt. I also said that the European countries, although they boast that they will lessen the reliance on the natural gas supplied by Russia or even refuse to use the natural gas of Russia, I believe that they will finally knee down to agree to pay RUB for the natural gas as they have no other substitution at the moment. I have further said that once the European countries agree to use RUB as the settlement currency for the natural gas supplied by Russia, it inspires us that RMB’s status for the settlement of international trade will be stronger in the future days.

Someone has challenged my article saying that the European countries will not agree Russia’s request to use RUB and also criticized my idea that HK should grasp this opportunity to enlarge and strengthen its offshore RMB center as it is a golden chance for HK to further strengthen it international financial center status. I don’t mind any criticism; it is because everyone should have freedom of speech. All my comments are based of actual market experience but not merely a theory form the test book. It is hardly for a scholar without actual market experience to understand that the real-world situation is quite different from the result of merely a study in a university. In fact, I welcome to exchange ideas with different professionals as it may help to find out my inadequacy.

Recently, it comes to my knowledge that the UK has already agreed to use RUB as settlement currency and the EU also said that using RUB as settlement currency is not of any issue. It did prove that my previous analysis is correct. Thence, I strongly suggest that the senior officers in charge of financial matters of the HK government should seriously consider how to grasp this opportunity to strengthen our status of being an offshore RMB settlement center. By doing so, it will help to increase the income of the government, derive more employment and business opportunities, that may release the burden of huge social welfare expenditure.

Again, I would like to remind the HK government to bear in mind the risk of our stock market being attacked, and also the potential risk, not matter how low, for holding almost 100% USD assets as our reserve. I have written an article last month to remind the HK government that there was symptom that the foreign financial sharks might be taking action attacking our stock market. Few days later, the central government has issued an announcement emphasizing the importance of keeping the financial market stable. Thence, because of huge fund inflow from China, the Hang Seng Index climbed back to 22000 from 17800. However, I remind here again, we should always be cautious to the abnormal movement of stock market and take immediate action in due course, it is an indispensable practice for an international financial center.

上一篇: 外資撤離香港的迷思及香港特區未來經濟發展方向
下一篇: 香港未來面对兩大危機!


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